I have always heard about KK's divine prediction, and in his post in 2010, he accurately predicted the development of the real estate market for the past decade.
Due to the lengthy content, I will record some key points here as my notes and share them with everyone.
Many words are sensitive and will be represented by initials.
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The purpose of regulation is not for everyone to have their own home (at least not property rights), but to prevent financial risks.
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Housing prices are not determined by the average income reported by the statistics bureau, but by the average income of the elites.
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Supply and demand determine commodity prices.
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Another purpose of regulation is to kick out the clowns and rectify the market, forming a Guo Jia team LD market, unifying pricing, controlling risks, and maximizing Guo Jia's interests.
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The introduction of public rental housing is a milestone in the process of LD rent.
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Rent will not decrease, and the income from rent is more operable than property tax.
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Imposing a general tax to adjust the wealth gap ultimately leads to misfortune for ordinary people.
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The tranquility of the top of the pyramid comes from the burden carried by the bottom.
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Capital will eventually flow into assets with scarcity.
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The residential attribute of real estate is the real economy, and the property rights attribute is the capital market.
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Our country's high inflation and continuous depreciation of currency are determined by the state-owned economic system.
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The size of urban development space is often proportional to the appreciation space of housing prices, although not absolute.
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Inflation is the best remedy to slow down the time of extinction.
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After industrialization, the "three major items" are no longer scarce resources, and cars and real estate have become tools to eliminate liquidity from the hands of ordinary people.
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No matter what kind of investment you make, you must do your homework. Regarding real estate, you must have a deep understanding of regional economic development, otherwise, do not easily make a move.
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Even if you are a farmer, you must understand the intentions of the government.
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Short-term fluctuations are normal, grasping policies can grasp trends, but it is difficult to accurately time the peak and bottom.
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Cities that engage in large-scale construction and active demolition cannot lower housing prices.
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In the future, most houses will be demolished. This is determined by China's system and economic development model. Currently, the focus is on the construction of small-sized units from 70-90, which will become new urban villages in the future.
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If you have the ability, it is better to strive for a one-step improvement when buying a house. In the future, it will be very difficult to improve unless there is significant personal development.
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Currency flooding and income inequality are the fundamental reasons for the difficulties in the development of the real economy and high housing prices.
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Population decline is the only way for housing prices to decrease.
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China's real estate bubble should be called "disguised taxation" or "real estate LD prices".
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Do not gamble or act out of anger.
Looking back at the post from 2010, it is very forward-looking. Especially KK's deep understanding of history and politics is admirable.
After reading this post, I feel that many joints have been connected. In summary:
Face human nature and historical laws, do not gamble or act out of anger.
In fact, many problems in human society have answers in history.
This has been very enlightening for me recently.
When I was working on data models recently, I wanted to predict future data based on past data.
For example, if the past data showed a linear increase until recently when the economy was not doing well and the data started to show a downward trend.
So, do you think the future will be an increase or a decrease?
It is difficult to say because we have provided too little data.
But if I can provide data from many cycles, then the situation becomes clear.
So, when you are confused, look back, look at the previous cycle, and if it is not clear, look further back.
Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, shared how he navigates through cycles:
"Study history, learn lessons, record them, and build models. This is the template for what is happening."
He said, "I also studied other long cycles, like a movie that happens over and over again, almost like the same story happening again and again, the only thing that changes is the clothes people wear and the technology they use."
Of course, as Ming Dynasty poet Yuan Zhen once said, "The lesson we learn from history is that we never learn from history."
This doesn't mean that looking at history is useless.
Because history is revised and not even true. It is also difficult for us to understand the causes and consequences of historical events.
So, try to understand the truth of history, but never apply it blindly.
Complete version download:
https://github.com/wenbochang888/house