Raymond Mills said that if people do not place themselves within the personal life opportunities of the trends of the times and the social class to which they belong, they cannot understand their own experiences and determine their own fate. A grain of sand from the era, when it falls on an individual, becomes a mountain. When the tide of the market economy recedes, in a world full of uncertainty, people begin to entertain the idea of grasping the last "lifeline," and the sense of security from having an "iron rice bowl" is becoming the most precious luxury of this era. Those who hold the "iron rice bowl" indicators become increasingly arrogant and complacent.
However, under the overturned nest, how can there be intact eggs? If a "Great Depression" truly occurs, it is likely that even the "iron rice bowl" cannot guarantee food in it. From the social phenomena during the "1929 Great Depression in the United States," it seems we can foresee the fears and hardships that the future road will face. The collapse of the national economy leads to a large number of workers losing job opportunities or having their wages cut; in 1931, the unemployment rate in the United States reached 25%. "Unemployment" is the most significant characteristic of the Great Depression; the more precious the iron rice bowl, the more humble the job seekers, and the closer they are to the "Great Depression."
Social production exceeds demand, consumption is insufficient, the poor cannot afford to consume, the middle class dares not consume, and the wealthy flee, leading to an economic downward spiral. This is followed by stock market crashes and factory closures. The harsh economic environment drives a dramatic change in group mentality. Social credibility is lost, loan defaults become the norm, landlords evict tenants who cannot pay rent in large numbers, and many young people return to their extended families, relying on their parents. A large number of unemployed women become fallen women, men no longer pay attention to their appearance, let alone talk about childbirth, and the social birth rate continues to decline.
At the same time, a counter-current in social development emerges. Socializing decreases; just as we today spend a lot of time lying at home watching boring short videos, Americans at that time passed the time with cards, board games, and low-cost movies. Reverse urbanization occurs, returning to rural areas, and farming more meticulously to obtain food. With a lack of spiritual fulfillment, the number of mentally ill people increases, religion flourishes, and charlatans and cults emerge endlessly.
How does human economic society experience alternating prosperity and decline? Why does the bizarre specter of the "Great Depression" follow closely behind? From the prosperity of Coolidge after World War I to the "Black Thursday" of the stock market to the Great Depression of the Hoover era, it ultimately triggered the subsequent World War II. Some questions seem to remain unanswered for a century, such as "How does an industrial power solve the problems of overcapacity and consumption distribution?" Once upon a time, American workers existed like "cattle and horses," and under this "cattle and horse" spirit, America created 40% of the world's industrial output (China also created a miracle in 2023, accounting for 35%, leaping to become the world's largest industrial power).
However, the enormous pressure of production capacity and sluggish consumption keeps the shadow of economic crisis looming. Thus, Americans, in order to boost consumption, raised the stock market to increase residents' property income, ultimately forming a massive stock market bubble; they invented consumer loans and installment payments, creating irredeemable financial bad debts; major infrastructure projects were built at the cost of hundreds of workers' lives, such as the famous "Hoover Dam." Ultimately, the Great Depression still arrived as expected; no one can defy the laws of economics.
Murray Rothbard, the chief theorist of the Austrian School, believes that the Great Depression was not caused by the government implementing "laissez-faire" policies, but rather by excessive government intervention. Economic crises are not an inevitable phenomenon of market economies but are a total correction of the misguidance brought about by prior government intervention in the market. Rothbard attributes the American Great Depression to the negative consequences of government interference in the market during the Hoover era; he believes it was not the failure of a liberal market economy but rather that too much government intervention made the market economy no longer market-oriented.
Those who do not remember the past are destined to repeat it. Although the American Great Depression is now history, scholars have been warning for years that "the world will face a Great Depression." Today, it seems that this warning is far from alarmist.